Saturday, January 8, 2011

On Australians buying US property...

With Australian property prices looking very toppy and the Aussie dollar going through the roof, the latest delusional investing fad in Australia appears to be snapping up foreclosed US properties. I've been hearing stories about this a while now, so I thought I'd look into it a bit. Firstly, in case you missed the story in The Age last week, here's a little extract to set the scene:
AUSTRALIAN property investors risk losing hundreds of millions of dollars after snapping up thousands of US housing bargains at forced-sale prices, experts have warned.
Emboldened by the soaring local dollar, Australians invested about $600 million on US residential property last year, according to the Washington-based National Association of Realtors, as overseas buying of US housing doubled.

But consumer advocate Neil Jenman predicts that thousands of Australians will lose their money after unwittingly buying undesirable property.
''It's going to be a calamity, for sure and certain,'' he says.
Another article from The Age tells the story of the following couple:
CLEANERS Ana and Miguel Canepa never imagined when they fled to Australia as refugees they would one day be landlords of four rental homes. But the residents of St Albans in Melbourne's outer north west are living the Australian dream, having last week signed contracts to buy their latest investment property. And it only cost them $A44,117.

That is because the three-bedroom house is in the US city of Phoenix in Arizona.
The couple, originally from El Salvador, have never been to Phoenix. But they already own two other homes purchased there this year for $A41,000 and $A52,100, as well as a fourth rental asset in Melbourne.

Real estate specialist Kevin Walters, who arranged the Canepa's purchases, will next month lead a shopping tour for 10 Australians and a tax firm that advises self- managed superannuation holders. They will visit Phoenix and Las Vegas, the foreclosure capital of the US.

''You can buy a house in the US for the cost of a deposit here,'' he says. ''Clients can purchase property in just two days, it's that easy. The only exception is that we don't have a lender for them at the moment, so they buy in cash.'' Mr Thomas says he gets rental returns of 16 per cent on his US assets, compared to about 3 per cent for his Australian properties. ''It doesn't seem a risk at all to me,'' he says.

What could possibly go wrong?

The Age quotes a Byron-Bay based buyers agent called 888 US Real Estate, which according to its website charges a "committment fee" of $380 and then a commission of $3,420 for each property purchase it handles for the Aussie battlers trying to realise their dreams. But 888 US Real Estate is just one of a handful of organizations that are sprouting up like weeds to flog US property to unsuspecting Australian buyers. Here are just a few of the ridiculous sales pitches made on some of these websites.
  • "It's no secret: USA property investment gives you a 10-20% net return... Even after your expenses are paid you will still make money with My USA Property"
  • "Once American banks start lending again, the USA market will recover. So you’d be wise to invest in an undervalued market now since every Australian dollar buys more"  (My USA Property)
  • "When you say “Go!” you set the wheels in motion for an exhilarating ride as your property grows in value giving you the possibility to create enough cash to fund the rest of your life in a few short years. Call us now!" (888 USA Real Estate)
Now, before you leave to throw up, I'd like to note that the statements above would be illegal if these guys were stockbrokers. But apparently in property land it's OK to promise fantastical rates of return without pointing out any of the risks involved in the investment strategy. Speaking of the risks, we'll get to that later.

But for now, we should concede that some of the claims they make are accurate. It is indeed true that in many parts of the US today, you can buy a house for less than the price of a new car in Australia, or for less than the average deposit on a house in most Australian cities. Which raises another question. There are a lot of very smart American investors with a lot of money to burn. If properties in the US are such a bargain, why is it that many of these American investors still don't want to touch the property market with a ten foot pole?

Miami Vice
I'm not going to go into detail about what an absolute debacle the US property market is today, but let's just take a look at an interesting graphic in a recent report from the ratings agency Moodys. Moody's notes that there is still a massive surplus of housing inventory on the market, and that foreclosures and defaults are still skyrocketing in many parts of the country. You can see below that there are significant parts of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where Moody's doesn't expect the housing market to fully recover until 2030. Yes, that's still two decades away.


And guess where the property spruikers are trying to talk Australians into buying investment properties? You're right. Places like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Here's are a couple of listings in Florida from My USA Property:


Now, on the surface, property prices in Florida look like a real bargain, since they've already fallen around 45% in Miami and more than 40% in Tampa, as you can see below.

Source: www.data360.org

Unsuspecting Suckers
But there's no guarantee that prices are ever going to return to these peaks again, at least for a very long time in some of these areas. In fact, one recent study (which I might examine in more detail when I get the chance) argues that the housing bust may have created new types of "declining cities" across the USA -- certain cities which grew rapidly in the boom, attracting huge population inflows and investment -- but which are now facing the prospect of decades of stagnation thanks to a vicious circle of falling house prices, declining populations, rising vacancies, and increasing crime rates.

Some Australian investors are already finding this out the hard way. From the above story in The Age:
Sydney woman Kathy Graffiti bought three properties in upstate New York in 2005 and estimates she has lost between $300,000 and $400,000 on her investment. She bought two properties in Rochester and one in Buffalo for a total of $250,000, expecting rental yields of between 22-23 per cent.
The rental income stopped in 2007 and Ms Graffiti was forced to sell two of the properties at a significant loss. She has been offered $10,000 for the third property. 
According to Neil Jenman, the consumer advocate quoted in The Age above, Buffalo, NY is one of the many areas where American "flippers" are buying up properties at fire-sale prices and then selling them on to "unsuspecting Australian suckers" at much higher prices.
Typically, the American promoters work in tandem with Australian property spruikers who Jenman says are the "same rogues" who used highly questionable tactics when selling residential property on the Gold Coast and in the outer Melbourne suburbs.

Jenman says some Australians paid $50,000 for US houses with expectations of extraordinary rental yields and now can't sell the properties for $25,000. And he knows of an Australian who paid $80,000 for a house and now is unable to sell it for $40,000 – the best offer has been $10,000.

Dumb Things
Without a doubt, there are going to be some good investment opportunities in some parts of the US. But how the hell are you going to identify them from Australia, and can you really trust the clowns at places like 888 US Real Estate to pick the winners for you?

And that's not to mention the myriad of other problems involved with buying property in the US, which the property spruikers gloss over, but include:
  • Significant foreign exchange risk
  • Major tax complications including the necessity to pay income tax in the US on any rental income
  • Stronger legal protections for tenants in the USA and a greater likelihood of lawsuits which can significantly raise costs for landlords compared to in Australia (see here for example)
Finally, you may have wondered how Australian investors have been financing these purchases. The answer is that American banks generally refuse to grant loans to overseas property investors (they're having enough trouble dealing with all the dumb subprime loans they made to Americans), so the majority of purchases are being made in cash. And where is this cash coming from? Usually, one of two things. Either a line of credit based on the equity in their Australian property holdings, or cash from their self managed super funds. Does this sound like a smart idea to you?

It's time to wrap this up. Let's end with an appropriate Aussie classic from Paul Kelly.

277 comments:

  1. Anon, was ripped off by unscrupulous ‘Property Investment Companies’ on his first two US property investments.
    Anon decided to travel to the US, set up a US company, hire a US Attorney, hire a US accountant and build local real estate contacts, 19 properties later all equity purchases through Anon's US company,
    Anon is keeping all the money he makes in the US in USD.
    Anon is planning on moving and retiring to the US. ~10 yrs.
    Anon is going to continue purchasing US properties.
    Anon believes the "System" in the US is geared more towards the "Owner" than what Anon has experienced in OZ.

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  2. Aussies planning to be millionaires by buying anything in California should think about this. There are literally hundreds of thousands of knowledgeable CASH buyers who are NOT buying. What do we know, that Aussies don't know? First if ANY house is going to be sold, at least 5-6 insiders will get a first shot at the deal..and they will buy in hours. Any property that you see on a list...is OLD, and probably a bad deal. I am a renter and have cash for several houses. 1/3 of the houses on my street are in some stage of sales, foreclosure or lien. There are offers on a GOOD and properly priced house before the ink is dry on the listing contract. HOW? INSIDERS! Realtors! One in 25 Californians is a REALTOR! You can get a license in a week of night online study. The exams are purposefully easy and require no formal education. All of these part time Realtors or family members who know someone want to be rich too. Many fail and end up broke or homeless.

    There is a small house across the street from me. In 2005 it cost USD $380,000...today it is for sale for $120,000. They have an auction every day. NO BUYERS! But that must sell the house...it has been over 3 months already. Why aren't people buying? The prices are TOO high! If you buy and rent out...what is to stop your tenant from giving notice and moving next door to the next empty house for rent at LOWER rent? Nothing! So how many months can you handle no tenants---no rent money? Tenants are not stupid...and many have money. We are tenants by choice. With cash I can buy and close in three days! That gives me power in the market. I tell you what.. I will be offering CASH 46k for that same house tomorrow - Under one name. I will know within 24 hrs if they reject my offer...and they will. But I do not care...I have another lower offer going in on the same house the next day and the next day each under a different name. It costs me NOTHING but a few emails. The bank is really dying...they will some day let the house go at a low price. If they don't - so what? No money lost. If they do---I will buy it---and sell it to you for 10k more- CASH only. I make a quick $10,000...and now its your turn to get rid of the house. I look outside my window and see five For Sale signs ---all "good deals", but why haven't they sold? They were from $750-899,000 only 4 years ago. One of them wants $450k....and has been for sale for 2 years. The asking price drops every month. Why buy TODAY...when the house will be cheaper next week? I have see some house go through 4 buyers sellers in 5 years. All the buyers thought they would be rich. Now you tell me why they sold? Rents are dropping every month...and my county has 22% unemployment. More than one in five adults has NO JOB! I saw a NEW house never sold...waiting for a buyer...the price is now lower than the cost to build. In my area its $43/sq ft to build new, but asking prices on some houses are still as high as $350 sq ft. ITS CRAZY! Two blocks from me they are BUILDING three NEW houses...These are 3,200 sq ft houses--the house not the lot. AND THEY WILL BE EMPTY. WHY? Crazy Americans and banker kick backs or politician kick backs...both illegal, but so is paying off a building inspector to look the other way. The city building inspector might get laid off tomorrow so they take the bribes. You want to be rich? DO YOUR HOMEWORK. NO ONE wants to live near gangs. Gangs are attracted to low rents and vacant houses to squat in. Gangs move in and All house prices drop in the area. I saw an ad for the 888 company showing a newer house near Atlanta Georgia to sell to Aussies. I called a friend who lived nearby the house. There was a gang murder two people shot one block from the house. Police have no suspects. People in gang areas will not talk...or they will be killed next. You can see the listing on the 888 website. Its on a corner lot, in suburb of Atlanta Georgia....waiting for a sucker in OZ land.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi, I've just visited 2 cities - Phoenix and Memphis - where I was shown several $50-60k detached homes with tenants already in place paying high rents - as long as they stay, a 50% loan can be paid off in 5 years etc - at some point you have to decide whether any realtors in the US can be trusted - the streets looked good enough and no apparent evidence of other homes they could switch to for lower rents - I'm now writing a book on buying in the U.S. - anyone with any comments or tales of woe, please let me know at USproperty@email.com - thanks, Alan Simon

    ReplyDelete
  4. You wrote "You can see below that there are significant parts of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where Moody's doesn't expect the housing market to fully recover until 2030. "

    What crap. Moodys can never get anything right. The housing market will go through ups and downs before 2030. I cant believe you publish this S$%T.

    LBS

    ReplyDelete
  5. LBS > Unfortunately you have completely missed the point. The point is not whether or not Moodys' view of the housing market is correct or not, it is whether or not the Australians buying these properties have a sufficient understanding of the risks involved. That's all.

    ReplyDelete
  6. FF,

    I appreciate what you are saying but in a recent blog you write" Economists. What are they good for?" Then I read this and you talk about Moodys predicting this 2030. I just sounds like a contradiction. I am on your side about investing in the US as I from there. You have to be very careful. Especially if there are things from the past on the house. I will never forget the press in Australia wrote this glowing article a year ago about people buying houses in Detriot for 10k or something. I laughed my ass off. My very good friend moved up there from Nashville to invest in property. It was a nightmare and he moved back. Actually lost some money. Talke about the most corrupt part of the US. I couldnt believe what I was reading as Detriot is the worst place to invest in and everyone over in the US knows that. I am not against you and really like your blog just dont like reading something that is BS about prices wont rise until 2030 and its quoted from a resource(Moodys) that never gets anything right. Great blog really enjoyed your piece on Australia overdependence on China. Its going to come back and bite the country.

    Cheers,
    LBS

    ReplyDelete
  7. When they talk about markets recovering in 2030, don't they mean prices reaching their bubble levels again? (ie. if you bought at the top of the bubble, you will break even in 2030). In other words these markets could start to rise before then. I don't think people are buying expecting the bubble to suddenly reinflate itself...

    PF

    ReplyDelete
  8. PF,

    You're right -- Moodys is talking about the time taken to return to peak levels. Keep in mind that this is in nominal terms, before taking inflation into account. If you bought at the peak and prices returned to that level nominally by 2030, you'd have made a significant loss in real terms.

    Cheers,

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  9. Got to love journalist who don’t research the facts before writing articles or just make things up to fluff an article. ie The Age. Mrs Graffiti (Got to love the name, how about Mrs Smith) buys 3 properties in 2005 for $250k. OK, she's has them rented for 2 years. Forced to sell them and loses $300k-$400k. Ha. How does that work? (If sold in 2007, that’s the height of the boom) AUD/USD was pretty much the same, so no currency loss. So one day she has 3 properties, the next she's lost $300-$400k, (Big difference there) then why would you have sold them? The Age story doesn’t make sense. If you buy anything , anywhere you need to do you due diligence. Its a bit like buying a $5M property in Blacktown, And complaining when comes to sell, is only worth $300k. You would think if you’re going to spend $250k, you might spend $2k on a plane ticket and going to see what you’re actually buying.
    The article should have been a warning on Stupid People live amount us, rather than a warning on US property.

    ReplyDelete
  10. American parents are advising their kids to stay out of the real estate market for next 10-20 yrs due to demographic distortions, the volume of financial jackals, and big questions regarding peak oil adaptations. There is not a location within the US which has escaped - even areas which never participated in "the boom".

    But Aussies smoking that same "debt crack" which did *us* in clamor to join the party?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks for the update. I really appreciate the efforts you have made for this post. Online sports tickets are really becoming very popular these days.

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  12. here i want to ask you sir that who much property a person in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida?because some of countries people can have limited property on their name?

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  15. Even Chinese people are up to investing and buying US properties too. They may have been seeing a low home value that could get high in the future and so they are getting the chance to own and buy a property to invest in for the future when the housing market gets stable and recover.

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  16. This post was simply amazing. I had a great time reading it and I find it impressive as well.



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  17. This blog is in desperate need of perspective. All investment vehicles are inherently risky. Property investments of any time included. The risk is exacerbated exponentially when human beings fail to exercise prudence! Insufficient due diligence is the single biggest risk factor of any investment. All the above examples of failed investments reek of incompetence. It would truly be sad except that due diligence is hardly an art, in fact it's relatively simple. I'll accept it takes a certain capacity to think, be creative, patient, thorough and diligent, but isn't your hard earned money worth it? Instead people want unrealistic gains, they want it right now and they don't want to work hard for it. This bloggers time would have been better allocated in presenting an unbiased view of the process needed to competently work through, fully understand and navigate such an investment. However I fully understand it take less of an intellect to simply "have a bitch"
    My short term strategy is to steer clear of any investments involving US dollar-denominated assets even though I believe that there is a return to be had for the prudent investor, investing "long term" in the US property market.

    All the best in wealth

    ReplyDelete
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    Even The china are up to committing and purchasing US qualities too. They may have been seeing a low home value that could get high later on and so they are getting the opportunity to own and buy a property or home to get for the long run when the real estate industry gets constant and restore.

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  19. There are a lot of very smart American investors with a lot of money to burn.As a small business consultants melbourne I appreciate your post...!!! Thanks

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  20. I will not buy in Australia as prices are way too high. The house price to income ratio here in Australia is out of control and unsustainable.

    I am looking at buying in the USA but first I need to do thorough research on how I can buy property in the US as a non US resident and how tax works plus other costs associated with property. My aim is to buy in New York City. I will not rush into this as I am wary that third parties can rip you off so it is extremely important for me to do my own research and buy directly avoiding the middleman in the process.

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  21. One of the most common ways of purchasing a below market value home is through a favourable sale. With a favourable sale, a parent will sell a home to their child for less than the market value. This is ideal for younger people that do not have the necessary funds available to make the deposit for a home of that price. It could drastically improve their chances of being approved for a mortgage.

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  23. we are the dealers in the market, and dealing in REO properties for sale we have many places we are selling on cheap rates.

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  24. Hi,just wondering if anyone could give me the answers to the following questions regarding Tax and capital gains.
    1:Do I have to pay tax or declare income to the Australian Tax Dept from Income from a positve geared propety in the USA.
    2: Would I have to pay tax on income to the USA govt?
    3: Is there a tax free threshhold like in Australia?
    4: If I sold the property is there capital gains tax payable in the USA?
    5: Would I aslso have to pay capital gains tax on the profit in Australia?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do your homework and look on the ATO website.

      This is just a bit if the info I found:

      Receiving rent
      Remember:
      ■ You must include the total rental income from your overseas real estate on your Australian tax return – even if it has been, or will be, taxed outside Australia.
      ■ Rent from overseas real estate is included at the ‘Foreign source income and foreign assets or property’ item on your tax return.
      ■ If you have paid foreign tax on income you received from overseas real estate, you may be entitled to a foreign income tax offset (formerly known as a foreign tax credit).
      ■ You are only entitled to a foreign income tax offset for tax you have actually paid.
      ■ Your foreign income tax offset is also included at the ‘Foreign source income and foreign assets or property’ item on your tax return.
      To work out if you are entitled to a foreign income tax offset, you can visit our website at www.ato.gov.au and search for Guide to foreign income tax offset rules.


      Claiming rental deductions
      Remember:
      ■ Tax deductions on your rental property can include – rates – interest – insurance – real estate agent fees – depreciation – deductions for capital works.
      ■ If your overseas property tax deductions are greater than your overseas rental income, you will have a foreign income loss.
      ■ You can use your foreign income loss to reduce your Australian income.

      Paying capital gains tax
      Remember:
      ■ Australia applies a tax to any profit you make when you sell (or otherwise dispose of) real estate both in Australia and overseas. This is called‘capital gains tax’.
      ■ You must include any capital gain or capital loss you have made from your overseas real estate on your Australian tax return – even if it has been or will be taxed outside Australia.
      ■ You can use your capital losses to offset the capital gains you make on other assets.
      ■ You need to include your capital gains and capital losses at the ‘Capital gains’ item on your tax return.
      ■ If you have owned your property for more than 12 months, you may be able to reduce the amount you include on your tax return by 50%.
      ■ If you have paid foreign tax on your capital gain, you may be entitled to a foreign income tax offset (formerly known as a foreign tax credit).

      Delete
  25. I heard that Australian house prices are likely to tumble in the next two years..your views on this on..??
    and on the other hand The Australian commercial real estate market continues to be fairly balanced as compare to residential..
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  36. I think the truth is somewhere between the overblown rhetoric of sellers like 888 and the overly negative view set out in this post. Yes, there are great returns to be had in US property. And, yes, there are significant risks, although these apply to greater and lesser extents to all investments, including Australian property. The key to maximise returns and minimise risk is to do your research. Interested parties might like to check out our book Buying Property in the USA: A Foreign Investor's Guide (www.buyingpropertyintheusa.com). As far as we are aware, it's the only such title geared to overseas buyers.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi
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